Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F7 0xf7fe…81cc sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-8%) realized −$54 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$3
other 27% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +39.7% +26.4% 75% 75% +10.7%
≤30d 4 +39.7% +26.4% 75% 75% +10.7%
≤90d 4 +39.7% +26.4% 75% 75% +10.7%
all 4 +39.7% +26.4% 75% 75% +10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.4% 75% +10.7%
10% +14.3% 75% +0.1%
15% +3.3% 75% -9.6%
20% -6.9% 75% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$198 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 30¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 57¢ 57¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$132 +129%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$61 +60%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $200 +$141 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 57¢ $59 50m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 73¢ $234 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 94¢ $162 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 58¢ $101 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $102 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $102 3h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $341 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 31¢ $1 5h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 58¢ $200 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $198 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.99 · official $153.99 (match) · 11 history records