Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F7 0xf7ff…a74c sports 431 markets active 10h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%213W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$4
14 days−$128
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$16
crypto 19% −$77
other 1% −$12
world 1% −$24
politics 0% −$5
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +12.7% +2.0% 63% 57% -9.8%
≤30d 144 -4.1% -13.2% 47% 43% -14.9%
≤90d 324 -23.7% -31.0% 35% 33% -21.2%
all 430 -1.5% -10.8% 50% 46% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 46% -14.1%
10% -19.4% 39% -22.3%
15% -27.2% 33% -29.8%
20% -34.3% 29% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses213 / 217
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)430 / 431
History coverage96d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $76 −$55 -72%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $16 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $70 +$7 +10%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $56 +$39 +69%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $25 +$13 +52%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Jun 17 $49 +$11 +24%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $40 +$8 +20%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $42 +$8 +20%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $10 +$15 +144%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $13 +$38 +300%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 15 $34 +$7 +20%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $119 −$18 -15%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $5 +$3 +59%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 +$13 +128%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $26 +$4 +15%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$13 +118%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $70 −$63 -91%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $101 +$14 +14%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $23 −$13 -55%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $42 +$12 +29%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $161 +$10 +6%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $110 −$3 -3%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $8 −$7 -82%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $110 +$21 +19%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $37 +$9 +25%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $38 +$20 +52%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $34 +$15 +44%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $39 +$4 +10%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $14 +$14 +95%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $3 −$2 -66%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $15 +$13 +89%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $2 +$1 +62%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $9 −$4 -44%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $5 $0 -5%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $10 +$7 +63%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs The Ruddy Sack (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Jun 08 $8 −$6 -73%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 51¢ $5 9h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $50 11h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 6¢ $1 11h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 35¢ $22 11h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 27¢ $5 11h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 27¢ $1 11h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 17¢ $2 11h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 20¢ $2 11h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $1 12h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 33¢ $2 12h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $4 12h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 37¢ $4 12h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $10 13h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $5 13h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 50¢ $5 24h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 60¢ $2 24h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 60¢ $4 24h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 71¢ $7 25h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 94¢ $47 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $50 27h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 67¢ $7 27h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 94¢ $47 28h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 88¢ $25 28h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 88¢ $2 28h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 75¢ $22 29h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $75 29h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $41 29h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $19 30h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $1 31h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 18¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.79 (match) · 1617 history records