Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F8 0xf802…d91d sports 675 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$28,273 (+11%) realized +$28,046 · open +$227
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%393W / 483L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$371per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$547est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,592now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 162d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$5,100
other 34% +$13,175
crypto 4% −$3,130
world 1% −$1,128
culture 0% −$16
politics 0% +$288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 -94.9% -95.3% 3% 2% -74.8%
≤30d 253 -83.5% -85.1% 9% 8% -64.4%
≤90d 436 -42.7% -48.1% 28% 25% -35.6%
all 876 -12.6% -21.0% 45% 41% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 41% -18.7%
10% -28.5% 34% -26.5%
15% -35.4% 27% -33.6%
20% -41.8% 21% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$237 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$2,592
Realized+$28,046
Unrealized+$227
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses393 / 483
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$547
Open positions7
Markets (closed)876 / 675
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$371
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 876 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $1,003 $1,104 +$102 (+10%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 99¢ $504 $792 +$288 (+57%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 28¢ 56¢ $267 $545 +$278 (+104%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 100¢ $18 $79 +$61 (+346%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $147 $38 −$109 (-74%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $310 $34 −$276 (-89%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 438 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 Jun 28 $939 −$939 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Execration (BO1) Jun 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $168 −$168 -100%
Spread: Swansea City AFC (-1.5) Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 28 $121 −$78 -64%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) Jun 28 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Howard Bison vs. Drexel Dragons Jun 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 6 Jun 28 $207 −$207 -100%
LoL: 3BL Esports vs Baam Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on November 2 Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ultra Prime - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
76ers vs. Nets Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: GnG Amazigh vs Vibranium Esports (BO3) Jun 28 $215 −$215 -100%
California-San Diego Tritons vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (W) Jun 28 $791 −$791 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $140 −$140 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2025-12-04? Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Valorant: DRX vs Rex Regum Qeon (BO3) Jun 28 $578 −$578 -100%
Commanders vs. Eagles Jun 28 $171 −$171 -100%
Dota 2: Perú Rejects vs Heroic - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Passion UA - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: One More Esports vs RAFHA eSPORTS - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Taylah Preston vs Oksana Selekh Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 3PM ET Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $405 −$405 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Myth Esports vs Senshi Esports Club (BO1) Jun 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Academy vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Evil vs Team Spirit (BO1) Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Georgia College & State Bobcats vs. South Florida Bulls Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs SPARTA (BO3) Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Team Novaq - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Shadowkek vs Team buster - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $104 −$104 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO1) Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Jun 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Armenia win Junior Eurovision 2025? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) Jun 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Trailer Park Boys vs Kukuys - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jun 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: La BOMBAS vs Ruddy Esports (BO1) Jun 28 $360 −$360 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: Passion UA vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) Jun 28 $613 −$613 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 12¢ $118 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $732 3h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,942 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 72¢ $1,109 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $75 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $106 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $20 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $16 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $2,002 29h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 15¢ $103 2d
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 19¢ $1,152 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $124 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $75 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $47 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,592.11 · official $2,592.21 (match) · 3500 history records