Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf803…e7ef other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$314 (-34%) realized −$314 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$114
sports 36% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -36.3% -42.4% 36% 36% -42.8%
≤30d 14 -36.3% -42.4% 36% 36% -42.8%
≤90d 14 -36.3% -42.4% 36% 36% -42.8%
all 14 -36.3% -42.4% 36% 36% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.4% 36% -42.8%
10% -47.9% 29% -48.2%
15% -52.9% 29% -53.2%
20% -57.6% 21% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$54 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$314
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 −$1 -2%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $46 +$27 +59%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $112 −$66 -59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $69 +$45 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$40 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 83¢ $29 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $24 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $73 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $46 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Mimi Xu 0¢ $1 11h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 20¢ $45 11h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 48¢ $112 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $69 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 34h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $45 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $81 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $76 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $76 5d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.21 · official $28.21 (match) · 31 history records