Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf808…6169 crypto 723 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+1%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%446W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$594
14 days−$110
30 days−$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$15
other 6% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 316 -21.5% -29.0% 48% 48% -29.3%
≤30d 609 -12.0% -20.3% 55% 55% -16.8%
≤90d 723 -1.1% -10.5% 62% 62% -10.4%
all 723 -1.1% -10.5% 62% 62% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 62% -10.4%
10% -19.1% 62% -19.0%
15% -26.9% 62% -26.8%
20% -34.1% 55% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses446 / 277
Open positions0
Markets (closed)723 / 723
History coverage44d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 723 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +52%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +55%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 18h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1420 history records