Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F8 0xf808…dba3 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (294 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$38 (-2%) realized −$37 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day293.8pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$25
finance 18% −$82
tech 12% +$16
other 1% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (294 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +33.5% +20.8% 77% 38% -9.9%
≤30d 13 +33.5% +20.8% 77% 38% -9.9%
≤90d 13 +33.5% +20.8% 77% 38% -9.9%
all 13 +33.5% +20.8% 77% 38% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover293.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.8% 38% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here +9.2% 23% -18.5%
15% -1.3% 23% -26.4%
20% -11.0% 23% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +92% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
32.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$32 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day293.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $200 −$78 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $549 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $210 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $270 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$33 +319%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $102 +$14 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.64 · official $198.64 (match) · 502 history records