Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf80a…c78a other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 85L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$21
politics 30% −$13
sports 3% +$60
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 86 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 6% -9.6%
all 96 +3.8% -6.1% 11% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 10% -9.5%
10% -15.1% 8% -18.1%
15% -23.3% 7% -26.0%
20% -30.8% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$2 · ×9.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage115d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $319 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $258 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $253 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 06 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $283 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $255 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $330 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $299 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $257 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $319 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $281 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $267 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $1,199 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $321 −$2 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $300 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $297 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $308 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $299 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $277 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $345 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $650 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $338 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $363 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $362 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $321 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $270 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $261 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $269 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 08 $336 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $344 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $349 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $319 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $304 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $371 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 06 $330 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 44h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 18d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $319 18d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $319 25d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $297 28d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $297 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $258 31d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $348 36d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $348 39d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 39d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 45d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $327 45d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $327 46d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $308 46d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $308 47d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $283 47d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $283 47d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $255 47d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $255 48d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $310 48d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $310 49d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $330 49d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $330 49d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $333 49d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $333 49d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $299 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.97 · official $55.97 (match) · 304 history records