Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F8 0xf80f…c0cf other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$488 (-38%) realized −$552 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days−$437
14 days−$448
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$286
sports 25% −$230
crypto 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-72.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -91.8% -92.6% 0% 0% -92.4%
≤30d 6 -79.2% -81.2% 0% 0% -83.7%
≤90d 6 -79.2% -81.2% 0% 0% -83.7%
all 8 -69.9% -72.8% 12% 12% -76.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.8% 12% -76.6%
10% -75.4% 0% -78.8%
15% -77.8% 0% -80.9%
20% -79.9% 0% -82.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$83 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$579
Realized−$552
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)8 / 16
History coverage241d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $62 $167 +$106 (+171%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $79 $76 −$3 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $95 $76 −$18 (-19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $95 $66 −$29 (-31%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $95 $62 −$33 (-35%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $30 $54 +$24 (+81%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+37%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $98 −$67 -69%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $98 −$88 -91%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $70 −$11 -16%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Nov 09 $134 −$134 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $86 +$14 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 10d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $59 12d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $64 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $70 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $98 14d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $98 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $98 14d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $98 14d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $98 14d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $81 14d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 38¢ $66 234d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 239d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 239d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 239d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 239d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 239d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 239d
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 239d
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) BUY CTBC Flying Oyster 37¢ $37 240d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) SELL Gen.G 100¢ $100 240d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) BUY Gen.G 86¢ $86 240d
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) BUY CTBC Flying Oyster 40¢ $97 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $578.87 · official $578.87 (match) · 47 history records