Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf815…500f other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$127 (-3%) realized −$127 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$158
sports 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 7% -13.2%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 7% -13.2%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 7% -13.2%
all 14 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 7% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 7% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 7% -21.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -29.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$32 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $360 −$47 -13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,680 −$28 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $640 −$72 -11%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $120 −$23 -19%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $300 −$20 -7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $138 +$3 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 −$2 -14%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $30 +$10 +33%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $70 +$1 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $177 +$9 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $62 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 32¢ $313 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 83¢ $1,652 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 29¢ $568 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $292 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $14 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $23 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $23 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $44 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $23 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $10 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $131 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $93 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $9 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $90 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $46 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $5 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $47 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $93 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $23 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $134 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $9 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $9 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $47 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $23 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $23 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $135 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $23 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $9 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $93 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $47 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records