Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:22:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf819…d410 sports 297 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$66,859 (-9%) realized −$66,807 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate64%189W / 107L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,395per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$7,739est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$742
7 days−$351
14 days−$121
30 days+$1,320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$45,334
other 0% +$383
crypto 0% +$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -25.3% -32.4% 50% 50% -20.3%
≤30d 20 +8.3% -2.0% 80% 80% +2.6%
≤90d 260 -6.1% -15.0% 63% 42% -15.7%
all 296 -6.3% -15.3% 64% 42% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 42% -15.3%
10% -23.4% 23% -23.4%
15% ← realistic here -30.8% 13% -30.8%
20% -37.6% 7% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$2,430) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$884 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$66,807
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses189 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$7,739
Open positions1
Markets (closed)296 / 297
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$2,395
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 53¢ $410 $358 −$52 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $437 +$226 +52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $337 +$307 +91%
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova Jun 24 $608 +$209 +34%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $505 −$499 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $396 +$82 +21%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $326 −$326 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $162 −$159 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $195 −$190 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $274 +$84 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$50 +25%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $183 +$95 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $367 +$98 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $278 +$60 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $189 +$56 +30%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $228 +$55 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $699 +$130 +19%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $256 +$86 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2,213 +$393 +18%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $361 +$253 +70%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,623 +$310 +19%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 14 $1,051 −$841 -80%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $184 −$87 -47%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $2,489 +$314 +13%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $4,534 −$164 -4%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $1,995 +$221 +11%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $5,978 +$510 +8%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $796 −$336 -42%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $820 +$750 +92%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 01 $487 −$479 -98%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 01 $292 −$288 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $2,384 +$424 +18%
Oilers vs. Ducks May 01 $955 +$523 +55%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $2,128 −$2,108 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 214.5 Apr 30 $304 −$74 -24%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $2,581 +$197 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 30 $103 +$44 +43%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Apr 30 $141 −$7 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 30 $1,006 −$964 -96%
Jiujiang: Rio Noguchi vs Coleman Wong Apr 30 $124 −$99 -80%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 30 $703 −$229 -33%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $12,142 −$4,597 -38%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $15,717 −$2,207 -14%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $1,391 −$713 -51%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Apr 30 $497 −$56 -11%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Apr 29 $502 −$126 -25%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 29 $417 +$193 +46%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 29 $481 +$147 +31%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Apr 29 $263 +$237 +90%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 29 $504 −$504 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $2,851 −$2,851 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $415 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 67¢ $663 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $643 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $337 24h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $437 25h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $5 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $38 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $20 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $38 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $15 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $38 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $15 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $30 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $15 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $8 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $91 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $38 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $18 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $38 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $92 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $38 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $38 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $6 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $15 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $30 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $38 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $23 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $8 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $30 37h
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova SELL Marianna Shikhanova 75¢ $97 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.76 · official $357.76 (match) · 3500 history records