Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F8 0xf81a…719a other 338 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,034 (+13%) realized +$1,979 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%100W / 235L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$457
14 days−$588
30 days−$1,637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$1,427
sports 35% +$359
world 1% +$35
crypto 1% −$115
economics 0% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -12.5% -20.9% 26% 26% -34.0%
≤30d 93 +1.9% -7.8% 26% 25% -30.3%
≤90d 335 -13.2% -21.5% 30% 29% -0.3%
all 335 -13.2% -21.5% 30% 29% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 29% -0.3%
10% -29.0% 29% -9.8%
15% -35.9% 29% -18.6%
20% -42.1% 29% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$36 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized+$1,979
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses100 / 235
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions3
Markets (closed)335 / 338
History coverage69d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $142 $197 +$56 (+39%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 31¢ 32¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 228 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $104 −$58 -56%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $50 +$204 +409%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $100 −$96 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 19 $20 −$19 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $37 −$36 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $250 −$242 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$69 +137%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$97 +194%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 17 $350 −$339 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 −$29 -97%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $30 −$29 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$40 +81%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 −$21 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 +$121 +246%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$152 +303%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$49 -96%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$48 -96%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$48 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $29 +$79 +273%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 +$65 +223%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $9 +$49 +544%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $30 −$21 -70%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $32 −$31 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$38 -77%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 −$49 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 +$294 +3163%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $24 +$59 +246%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$47 -93%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $73 −$71 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 −$28 -56%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -97%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 +$23 +234%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 20m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $100 33m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 44m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $47 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 10¢ $46 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 21¢ $104 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 19¢ $50 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 10¢ $100 4h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 27h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 5¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 28h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $20 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $37 3d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 25¢ $250 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 3d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 24¢ $350 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $50 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $30 5d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $30 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $50 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $49 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.75 · official $390.75 (match) · 487 history records