Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf81a…349e crypto 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+5%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%82W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$13
14 days+$36
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$13
crypto 38% +$33
sports 6% +$12
world 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.1% -4.0% 75% 75% +1.2%
≤30d 12 -3.5% -12.7% 67% 67% -19.9%
≤90d 135 +6.9% -3.3% 61% 54% -8.2%
all 135 +6.9% -3.3% 61% 54% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 54% -8.2%
10% -12.5% 42% -17.0%
15% -21.0% 33% -25.0%
20% -28.7% 24% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses82 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage67d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 −$16 -72%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$9 +24%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $27 +$10 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $12 +$8 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $28 +$6 +20%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $28 +$20 +71%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $8 +$7 +81%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $15 +$8 +54%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $25 −$17 -69%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $16 +$9 +57%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $30 +$5 +17%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$4 -73%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $8 +$6 +71%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $11 +$19 +167%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $6 −$1 -24%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 26 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 26 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $9 +$6 +62%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$3 +60%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 21 $8 +$6 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 21 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 43h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $22 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $35 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $27 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $28 20d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 56¢ $20 23d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 27d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 27d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $70 27d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 27d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $16 31d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 32d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 33d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL No 100¢ $28 33d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 72¢ $20 33d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 33d
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 34d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 34d
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 34d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 34d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? SELL No 23¢ $8 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.77 · official $29.77 (match) · 279 history records