Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F8 0xf81c…b112 sports 500 markets active 2h ago coverage 571d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$206 (-3%) realized −$206 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%288W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$90
14 days+$81
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$233
crypto 17% +$25
other 16% +$62
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.0% -0.5% 84% 63% +2.1%
≤30d 29 -10.2% -18.7% 69% 52% -8.0%
≤90d 48 -6.5% -15.4% 71% 48% -7.9%
all 500 -10.5% -19.0% 58% 38% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 38% -11.8%
10% -26.8% 28% -20.2%
15% -33.9% 21% -28.0%
20% -40.3% 15% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

571d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses288 / 212
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)500 / 500
History coverage571d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 500 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $47 +$29 +62%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 +$3 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 +$8 +19%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $22 +$8 +35%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $42 +$8 +18%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $16 +$34 +203%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $34 +$2 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $32 $0 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $129 +$16 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $44 +$6 +15%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $69 +$31 +45%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 +$8 +26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $23 +$12 +53%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $41 +$9 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $35 +$2 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $74 +$26 +35%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $4 $0 +12%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 20 $9 +$1 +10%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $3 +$1 +43%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $11 +$4 +36%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $25 +$1 +3%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $3 +$2 +55%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 03 $3 −$2 -57%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $4 −$2 -36%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 30 $14 +$1 +5%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Mar 28 $3 $0 +6%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Mar 28 $4 $0 +4%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Mar 28 $1 +$2 +168%
Bulls vs. Thunder Mar 28 $4 +$1 +21%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $4 −$3 -88%
Kings vs. Magic Mar 27 $10 $0 +1%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 23 $4 +$1 +30%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $3 +$2 +70%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 19 $7 $0 +5%
76ers vs. Nuggets Mar 18 $4 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 53¢ $26 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $47 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 76¢ $22 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 76¢ $1 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $21 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 72¢ $18 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 72¢ $4 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $20 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $7 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $16 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $3 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $6 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $7 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $7 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $42 38h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $16 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 74¢ $37 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $13 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $4 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $6 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $11 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL No 59¢ $29 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $6 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 65¢ $3 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 65¢ $5 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 65¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1278 history records