Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F8 0xf81e…9e79 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$38 (+27%) realized +$38 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip

Net edge+70%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate52%11W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$14

7 days+$22

14 days+$22

30 days+$22

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)+69.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+102.6%	+83.3%	47%	47%	+44.5%
≤30d	15	+102.6%	+83.3%	47%	47%	+44.5%
≤90d	15	+102.6%	+83.3%	47%	47%	+44.5%
all	21	+87.3%	+69.5%	52%	52%	+16.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+69.5%	52%	+16.3%
10%	+53.2%	52%	+5.2%
15%	+38.4%	52%	-5.0%
20%	+24.9%	43%	-14.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +87% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +16% → late +152% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$38

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses11 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage228d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama?	Jun 18	$3	+$2	+52%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$1	+$13	+1290%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	Jun 14	$4	−$2	-39%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	Jun 14	$3	+$6	+244%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	Jun 14	$2	+$8	+388%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$3	+$2	+47%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-57%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$1	$0	+49%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	Jun 12	$3	−$3	-100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	Jun 12	$4	+$7	+164%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 09	$24	+$32	+136%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Nov 09	$15	+$31	+202%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Nov 09	$28	−$28	-100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Nov 09	$26	−$25	-100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner	Nov 02	$5	+$4	+76%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	Nov 02	$5	+$4	+80%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama?	SELL Yes	76¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama?	BUY Yes	49¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	39h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1	39h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1	25¢	$2	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	SELL T1	99¢	$9	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	25¢	$2	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	36¢	$1	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	SELL T1	99¢	$10	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL T1	38¢	$5	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	SELL T1	99¢	$0	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	15¢	$1	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	31¢	$1	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1	7¢	$1	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	20¢	$1	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1	29¢	$1	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	29¢	$1	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	SELL T1	49¢	$3	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1	38¢	$1	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1	38¢	$1	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	30¢	$1	3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	SELL KT Rolster	10¢	$0	4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	22¢	$1	4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	4¢	$1	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	72¢	$2	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$1	5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	37¢	$2	5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	39¢	$2	5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	25¢	$2	5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	SELL T1	99¢	$11	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records