Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F8 0xf81e…319b crypto 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$51 (+4%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$111
sports 16% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -11.5% -19.9% 62% 50% -13.6%
≤30d 18 +6.8% -3.4% 67% 56% -9.2%
≤90d 18 +6.8% -3.4% 67% 56% -9.2%
all 18 +6.8% -3.4% 67% 56% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 56% -9.2%
10% -12.6% 33% -17.9%
15% -21.1% 28% -25.9%
20% -28.8% 28% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$38 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $268 −$83 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $69 +$40 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $92 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $71 −$68 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $57 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $137 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$28 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$10 +19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $104 +$19 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $57 +$47 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $27 +$30 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $9 +$18 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $88 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $84 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $91 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $85 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $89 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $77 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $91 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $92 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $66 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $55 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $59 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records