Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf821…7cb7
crypto · 263 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$75 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses200 / 61
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)261 / 263
History coverage12d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 261 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$219
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 95¢ 92¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$19 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $61 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$11 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $22 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$25 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$89
other 1% +$10
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $13 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $12 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $9 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $13 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $5 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -4.1% -13.2% 66% 22% -17.4%
≤30d 261 -1.7% -11.1% 77% 20% -10.6%
≤90d 261 -1.7% -11.1% 77% 20% -10.6%
all 261 -1.7% -11.1% 77% 20% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 20% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 10% -19.1%
15% -27.4% 8% -27.0%
20% -34.5% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.14 · official $18.24 · 839 history records