Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf823…e7ef sports 25 markets active 11d ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$713 (-26%) realized −$694 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$778
30 days−$778
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$529
sports 37% −$190
crypto 3% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -71.8% -74.5% 8% 8% -88.3%
≤90d 23 -29.8% -36.5% 39% 35% -36.2%
all 23 -29.8% -36.5% 39% 35% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 35% -36.2%
10% -42.6% 30% -42.3%
15% -48.1% 26% -47.9%
20% -53.2% 26% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$96 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$694
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage46d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 32¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $38 −$36 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$26 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$20 -32%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $74 −$35 -47%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 16 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$49 +186%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $101 +$77 +76%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5 May 07 $41 +$23 +57%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $66 +$45 +68%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $162 −$155 -96%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $202 +$120 +59%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 04 $51 −$10 -19%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $354 −$346 -98%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 04 $101 +$20 +20%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $263 +$194 +74%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 May 04 $191 +$63 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 11d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $53 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $107 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $27 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up $20 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $47 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $42 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $39 13d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 13d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 13d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 14d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 51d
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 51d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 52d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 53d
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 74¢ $64 53d
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $41 53d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 53d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 54d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes $7 54d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 54d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $66 54d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 54d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 55d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $322 55d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 55d
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $41 56d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes $8 56d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.46 · official $131.46 (match) · 64 history records