Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf824…05a6
finance · 15 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$55 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$42 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP finance specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage78d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 2 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 32¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 60¢ 4¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? Up 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? No 83¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $20 +$7 +37%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 18? May 20 $10 $0 +5%
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $50 +$55 +109%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $100 −$39 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 76% −$40
other 11% +$26
world 10% −$31
sports 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +104.4% +85.0% 100% 100% +96.2%
≤30d 5 +30.0% +17.6% 80% 60% +39.0%
≤90d 13 -29.2% -35.9% 38% 31% -22.0%
all 13 -29.2% -35.9% 38% 31% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 31% -22.0%
10% -42.1% 31% -29.5%
15% -47.7% 31% -36.3%
20% -52.8% 15% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.69 · official $6.69 (match) · 21 history records