Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F8 0xf824…dce2 crypto 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$746 (-4%) realized −$746 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%52W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days−$1,317
30 days−$1,326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,495
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +49.5% +35.3% 100% 100% +35.3%
≤30d 87 -11.1% -19.6% 44% 44% -18.9%
≤90d 110 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 47% -16.0%
all 110 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 47% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 47% -16.0%
10% -24.2% 45% -24.1%
15% -31.6% 40% -31.4%
20% -38.3% 35% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$121 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$746
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses52 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage62d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $309 −$258 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $309 −$251 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $207 −$178 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$59 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $207 −$179 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $200 −$114 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $102 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $104 +$32 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $105 −$89 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$53 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$68 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $105 +$147 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $208 +$267 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $207 −$197 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$91 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $208 +$199 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $207 −$167 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $206 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $104 −$98 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $105 −$89 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $104 +$85 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 08 $206 −$21 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $105 −$57 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $207 +$135 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $103 −$77 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $104 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $104 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $206 +$148 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 06 $104 −$80 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 06 $104 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $207 +$185 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $103 −$77 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $206 +$137 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $208 −$176 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $104 −$74 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $207 +$133 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $103 −$78 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 05 $103 +$70 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 04 $104 −$14 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 04 $104 +$86 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 04 $103 +$84 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $206 −$162 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 03 $104 −$68 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 03 $103 +$80 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $51 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $309 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $58 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $309 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $29 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $207 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $45 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $28 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $207 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $85 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $200 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $87 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $135 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $157 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $36 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $120 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $252 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 227 history records