Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf825…b9ff sports 656 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,888 (-12%) realized −$2,368 · open −$520
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%356W / 289L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$3,718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$273
14 days−$532
30 days−$532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,128
sports 46% −$1,544
crypto 2% −$176
world 1% −$118
finance 0% +$4
politics 0% −$17
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -10.6% -19.1% 57% 43% -20.6%
≤30d 160 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 48% -23.2%
≤90d 482 -19.5% -27.2% 54% 43% -38.8%
all 645 -7.8% -16.6% 55% 47% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 47% -20.7%
10% -24.6% 36% -28.3%
15% -31.9% 29% -35.2%
20% -38.6% 23% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$3,718
Realized−$2,368
Unrealized−$520
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses356 / 289
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions11
Markets (closed)645 / 656
History coverage150d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,233 $1,413 +$180 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,233 $1,053 −$180 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $775 $584 −$191 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $651 $509 −$142 (-22%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $59 −$41 (-41%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $37 −$62 (-62%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 71¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Will Antoine Semenyo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 22¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Hanfmann Jun 18 $20 +$8 +37%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp Jun 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Quinn Jun 18 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz Jun 17 $12 +$6 +50%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $16 +$9 +56%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals Jun 16 $9 +$1 +17%
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals Jun 16 $9 +$1 +15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner Jun 16 $61 −$32 -54%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI Jun 16 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $25 +$15 +57%
Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs Bublik Jun 16 $5 +$36 +702%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Norris? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Russell? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Piastri or Russell? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $57 +$14 +25%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Svajda Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$20 +89%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Jonathan Tah: 1+ shots Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Nico Schlotterbeck: 4+ shots Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 9.5 Corners Jun 14 $21 +$9 +46%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Hanfmann BUY Zverev 68¢ $10 1h
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Hanfmann BUY Zverev 77¢ $10 1h
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp BUY Paul 53¢ $10 2h
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Quinn SELL Shelton 100¢ $150 4h
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Quinn BUY Shelton 66¢ $33 4h
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Quinn BUY Shelton 66¢ $67 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 22h
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime BUY Auger-Aliassime 51¢ $26 25h
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery BUY Mannarino 48¢ $1 26h
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery BUY Mannarino 48¢ $7 26h
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery BUY Mannarino 48¢ $6 26h
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery BUY Mannarino 48¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 28h
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz SELL Fritz 100¢ $18 28h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 93¢ $0 28h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 93¢ $25 28h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 58¢ $10 28h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 61¢ $6 28h
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz BUY Fritz 66¢ $12 30h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 45h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 45h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 45h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 45h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 45h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 45h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,717.74 · official $3,717.74 (match) · 1563 history records