Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F8 0xf826…0ce4 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$125 (+26%) realized +$121 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$97
14 days+$92
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$70
other 40% −$22
crypto 14% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +19.3% +8.0% 57% 57% +15.6%
≤30d 36 +16.0% +5.0% 56% 56% +14.0%
≤90d 40 +20.9% +9.3% 55% 55% +13.9%
all 40 +20.9% +9.3% 55% 55% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 55% +13.9%
10% -1.1% 55% +3.0%
15% -10.7% 52% -6.9%
20% -19.4% 48% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage199d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $38 $42 +$4 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $10 +$24 +232%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 28 $5 −$4 -77%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 28 $5 +$6 +109%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $5 −$1 -15%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 +$12 +118%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$55 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $30 +$14 +48%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$8 +75%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$3 +62%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 +$9 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$3 -26%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 +$4 +83%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$7 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 −$4 -72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $10 +$19 +182%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 10 $20 +$55 +276%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Team Spirit win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? May 05 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $29 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $34 23h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) SELL Argentina 11¢ $1 23h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $11 23h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina 46¢ $5 24h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 24¢ $4 24h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $5 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 27h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $5 29h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $10 29h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $5 29h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $10 29h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 29h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $87 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 42h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Tot BUY 12¢ $5 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $30 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.37 · official $42.37 (match) · 82 history records