Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf827…ca4f crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$517 (+13%) realized +$505 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$39
14 days+$426
30 days+$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$289
sports 46% +$149
weather 4% +$9
other 1% −$8
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -18.1% -25.9% 40% 40% +11.3%
≤30d 51 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 41% +0.8%
≤90d 51 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 41% +0.8%
all 51 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 41% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 41% +0.8%
10% -17.6% 39% -8.9%
15% -25.5% 39% -17.7%
20% -32.8% 33% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$30 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$505
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage13d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Yes 29¢ 31¢ $77 $83 +$6 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $50 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $52 +$46 +88%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $51 +$19 +37%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 11 $479 −$29 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $211 +$173 +82%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 11 $349 −$20 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $184 −$129 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $209 −$200 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $302 +$349 +115%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $88 −$12 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$63 +240%
England vs. Costa Rica: Costa Rica O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$11 +209%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $331 +$66 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$105 +200%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $146 +$81 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $32 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $133 +$53 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$6 -77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $134 −$54 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 09 $46 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $103 +$88 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5) Jun 09 $101 +$79 +78%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) Jun 09 $30 −$8 -27%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$38 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +38%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $68 +$59 +87%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $31 −$3 -8%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $51 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $42 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 71¢ $98 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $10 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $52 3h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 3h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $51 4h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) SELL Detroit Tigers 72¢ $450 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $9 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 10d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 75¢ $479 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 42¢ $384 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 21¢ $211 10d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 69¢ $328 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 10d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 72¢ $349 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 86¢ $651 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.32 · official $99.32 (match) · 112 history records