Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf829…9ea9 other 333 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$89 (-9%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%63W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$11
14 days+$114
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$109
sports 8% +$17
crypto 4% −$9
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -51.6% -56.2% 16% 16% -24.2%
≤30d 156 -10.4% -19.0% 17% 17% +1.9%
≤90d 328 -18.5% -26.3% 19% 19% -20.8%
all 329 -18.3% -26.0% 19% 19% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 19% -20.5%
10% -33.1% 19% -28.1%
15% -39.6% 19% -35.0%
20% -45.5% 19% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses63 / 266
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)329 / 333
History coverage91d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 +$9 +146%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $8 +$8 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +108%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 11 $2 +$10 +510%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bolivia 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bolivia 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $65 +$137 +213%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Real Zaragoza 1 - 1 Málaga CF? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 42m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 8h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 8h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $8 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $6 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 27h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 28h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $8 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.09 · official $20.09 (match) · 511 history records