Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf82b…ed2f crypto 974 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$856 (-6%) realized −$856 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate81%788W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day151.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$305
7 days−$163
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 395 -3.2% -12.4% 81% 21% -11.6%
≤30d 974 +2.5% -7.3% 81% 14% -9.8%
≤90d 974 +2.5% -7.3% 81% 14% -9.8%
all 974 +2.5% -7.3% 81% 14% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 14% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 8% -18.4%
15% -24.3% 5% -26.3%
20% -31.7% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$856
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses788 / 186
Open positions0
Markets (closed)974 / 974
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day151.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 974 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $37 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$6 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$2 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $35 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $12 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $37 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $39 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records