Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf82c…4144
crypto · 171 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses164 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 171
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 170 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by less than 10%? No 95¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$20
finance 5% +$1
other 3% +$2
sports 1% +$1
politics 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 7h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 8h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $20 8h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 170 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 170 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 0% -10.1%
all 170 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 0% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.66 · official $20.66 (match) · 337 history records