Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf82e…a4f3 world 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%30W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$31
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$29
politics 21% +$1
other 19% $0
sports 12% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 29 -3.1% -12.3% 31% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 77 -1.4% -10.8% 34% 3% -9.6%
all 94 -1.1% -10.5% 32% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses30 / 64
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage256d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $287 −$1 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $56 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $369 −$3 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $113 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $134 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $270 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $129 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $129 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $220 −$12 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $148 −$13 -9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $332 −$1 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $299 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $210 +$4 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $147 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $277 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $205 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $161 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $182 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $251 −$17 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $160 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $132 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $72 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $134 +$29 +22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $148 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $135 −$1 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $136 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $67 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $137 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $163 −$12 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $13 −$2 -18%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $186 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $322 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $454 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $614 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $147 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $146 +$1 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $179 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $172 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $166 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $162 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $291 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $166 −$1 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 43m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $23 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $60 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $123 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $56 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $56 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $103 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $74 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $37 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $72 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $72 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $37 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $98 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $134 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $97 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $97 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $134 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $134 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $135 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 405 history records