Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F8 0xf82f…3940 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days+$46
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$45
other 38% +$80
crypto 4% −$31
sports 3% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.3% -8.3% 23% 23% -2.4%
≤30d 38 -6.3% -15.3% 24% 24% -3.1%
≤90d 38 -6.3% -15.3% 24% 24% -3.1%
all 52 -10.4% -18.9% 35% 27% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 27% -6.3%
10% -26.7% 27% -15.3%
15% -33.7% 21% -23.5%
20% -40.2% 13% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$16 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage112d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$40 +786%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $51 +$14 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$30 +119%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$25 +250%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 +$26 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$101 +982%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$26 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 21 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 21 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ferrari double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pri Mar 19 $40 −$40 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $3 $0 +2%
Will Mercedes double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $6 +$2 +39%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 10 $1,012 +$83 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 38¢ $65 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 14h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 38h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 38h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $60 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $54 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records