Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F8 0xf82f…8137 culture 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$375 (+2%) realized +$375 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%59W / 102L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$5
14 days−$87
30 days−$1,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$815
culture 45% +$1,008
crypto 6% +$104
world 2% −$15
tech 1% −$75
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.3% -22.5% 25% 25% -8.6%
≤30d 30 -30.4% -37.0% 30% 20% -23.0%
≤90d 118 -36.7% -42.7% 25% 17% -9.6%
all 161 -17.4% -25.3% 37% 29% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 29% -8.2%
10% -32.4% 26% -17.0%
15% -39.0% 23% -25.0%
20% -44.9% 22% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$38 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$375
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses59 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 163
History coverage178d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$26 +129%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 22 $207 +$49 +24%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $59 −$12 -20%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $39 −$5 -12%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $79 −$14 -17%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 13 $107 +$5 +5%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 13 $165 −$97 -59%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 07 $30 −$28 -93%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,053 −$91 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $511 −$39 -8%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 01 $322 −$308 -96%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? May 30 $325 +$16 +5%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 30 $155 −$109 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $487 −$27 -6%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 May 29 $79 −$76 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $714 −$291 -41%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $192 −$120 -62%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater tha May 29 $579 −$560 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $135 −$45 -33%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? May 28 $908 +$336 +37%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? May 28 $200 −$145 -72%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $296 +$100 +34%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $194 −$146 -75%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m May 26 $406 +$224 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $675 +$142 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $147 +$12 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $113 −$77 -69%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? May 24 $319 +$175 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 23 $43 −$5 -11%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 22 $1,428 +$115 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $188 −$9 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $33 −$1 -4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 21 $21 −$9 -43%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 20 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1,304 +$116 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3 May 19 $352 −$350 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 3 May 19 $425 −$425 -100%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 18 $408 +$263 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? May 17 $37 −$7 -20%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 11 $1,007 +$1,009 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 18h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 98¢ $256 28h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 79¢ $207 46h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 56¢ $19 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $39 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 72¢ $112 9d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 68¢ $107 10d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 SELL Yes 14¢ $68 10d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 33¢ $9 11d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 33¢ $2 11d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 33¢ $10 11d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 33¢ $18 11d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 33¢ $21 11d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 33¢ $4 11d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 33¢ $94 11d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 33¢ $2 11d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 33¢ $5 11d
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 14m? BUY No 20¢ $50 13d
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 14m? BUY No 20¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.76 · official $24.76 (match) · 703 history records