Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf830…b341 other 66 markets active 8h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$96 (-15%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%21W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1
other 44% −$94
crypto 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -6.7% -15.5% 32% 30% -24.1%
≤30d 66 -6.7% -15.5% 32% 30% -24.1%
≤90d 66 -6.7% -15.5% 32% 30% -24.1%
all 66 -6.7% -15.5% 32% 30% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 30% -24.1%
10% -23.6% 29% -31.4%
15% -31.0% 27% -38.0%
20% -37.8% 27% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses21 / 45
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$3 -35%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -63%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -78%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +76%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 +$21 +86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +121%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$2 -49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +99%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $19 −$18 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $61 −$61 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $11 +$10 +84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $14 +$7 +53%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $10 +$10 +103%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$4 -44%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +108%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +146%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $14 +$15 +103%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $62 +$6 +10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $18 −$6 -35%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $36 9h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 26¢ $6 10h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 39¢ $9 10h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 10h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 10h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 10h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 11h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 11h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $46 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $25 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 29h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 29h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $2 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $20 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 30h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 30h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $14 32h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 35h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 35h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $23 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records