Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F8 0xf837…bd42 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,398 (-37%) realized −$2,395 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$668
sports 44% −$2,044
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-57.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -53.4% -57.8% 33% 33% -46.3%
≤30d 12 -53.4% -57.8% 33% 33% -46.3%
≤90d 12 -53.4% -57.8% 33% 33% -46.3%
all 12 -53.4% -57.8% 33% 33% -46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.8% 33% -46.3%
10% -61.8% 33% -51.5%
15% -65.5% 25% -56.1%
20% -68.9% 0% -60.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$459 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$2,395
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage14d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $106 −$100 -94%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $212 −$200 -94%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $629 −$600 -95%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $996 +$306 +31%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $159 −$150 -94%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $525 +$256 +49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $523 −$473 -90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $474 +$181 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $525 +$221 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $107 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $106 12h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $53 12h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $107 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $212 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $629 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $996 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $159 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $25 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $525 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $523 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $474 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $525 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $2,000 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.67 · official $96.67 (match) · 19 history records