Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F8 0xf837…e5b4 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$108 (+14%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%27W / 19L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day107.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$130
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +22.3% +10.7% 59% 54% +5.6%
≤30d 46 +22.3% +10.7% 59% 54% +5.6%
≤90d 46 +22.3% +10.7% 59% 54% +5.6%
all 46 +22.3% +10.7% 59% 54% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.7% 54% +5.6%
10% ← realistic here +0.1% 46% -4.5%
15% -9.6% 33% -13.8%
20% -18.4% 22% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses27 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day107.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$43 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$35 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$45 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$6 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$3 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -47%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $12 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records