Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf837…3937 crypto 712 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$93 (-3%) realized −$94 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%442W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day72.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$29
14 days−$264
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 -0.1% -9.6% 72% 52% -11.9%
≤30d 711 -4.1% -13.3% 62% 55% -13.5%
≤90d 711 -4.1% -13.3% 62% 55% -13.5%
all 711 -4.1% -13.3% 62% 55% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 55% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 50% -21.8%
15% -29.2% 36% -29.4%
20% -36.1% 23% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses442 / 269
Open positions1
Markets (closed)711 / 712
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day72.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 711 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 51¢ 82¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 202 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.24 · official $2.02 · 1849 history records