Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf83a…032f world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$5
other 19% −$1
crypto 14% $0
sports 9% $0
politics 9% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -2.7% -12.0% 33% 0% -11.1%
all 46 -0.9% -10.3% 22% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage299d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $34 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $34 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $40 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $71 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $19 −$4 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 27 $31 $0 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $35 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $29 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $5 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $11 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $23 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $19 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $30 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $7 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $37 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 28d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 28d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 30d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 30d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 30d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 30d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $15 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records