Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F8 0xf83c…e423 sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$165 (+3%) realized +$136 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,387
other 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.7% +0.2% 47% 47% +17.8%
≤30d 19 +10.7% +0.2% 47% 47% +17.8%
≤90d 19 +10.7% +0.2% 47% 47% +17.8%
all 19 +10.7% +0.2% 47% 47% +17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 47% +17.8%
10% -9.4% 47% +6.5%
15% -18.2% 47% -3.8%
20% -26.2% 47% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$345 vs −$184 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 68¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $399 +$631 +158%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 −$197 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $199 −$195 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $123 −$121 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0. Jun 18 $311 +$514 +165%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U Jun 18 $205 −$195 -95%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $300 −$295 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Croat Jun 17 $153 +$274 +179%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $304 +$205 +68%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $245 +$228 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 +$212 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 +$525 +172%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $199 +$236 +118%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $199 +$278 +139%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $148 −$145 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 5m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar BUY 30¢ $204 46m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,030 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $399 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $200 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $199 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: South BUY 33¢ $201 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $123 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0. BUY 37¢ $311 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U SELL 1¢ $10 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $300 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U BUY 19¢ $205 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $509 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $304 24h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $473 25h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $245 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $304 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $413 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $202 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 30¢ $146 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Croat BUY 35¢ $153 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY 36¢ $304 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $204 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $435 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $199 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $477 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $199 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $99 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $148 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.04 · official $289.48 · 34 history records