Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:51:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf83d…367d sports 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,499 (-3%) realized −$4,187 · open −$312
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%176W / 126L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$561per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$309est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$5,348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$526
7 days+$1,127
14 days+$3,342
30 days+$1,789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$6,287
other 18% +$2,028
politics 0% −$128
crypto 0% +$2
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +39.3% +26.1% 67% 67% +6.4%
≤30d 52 +9.4% -1.1% 54% 54% +1.5%
≤90d 132 -1.8% -11.1% 47% 41% -11.7%
all 302 +6.6% -3.6% 58% 52% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 52% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 37% -20.1%
15% -21.2% 28% -27.9%
20% -28.9% 22% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$660) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$356 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$5,348
Realized−$4,187
Unrealized−$312
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses176 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$309
Open positions13
Markets (closed)302 / 315
History coverage197d
Avg bet$561
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 85¢ $1,731 $1,696 −$35 (-2%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 54¢ $943 $884 −$59 (-6%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 80¢ $783 $808 +$25 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 81¢ $739 $705 −$35 (-5%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 88¢ $404 $417 +$13 (+3%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 14¢ $390 $296 −$94 (-24%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $358 $235 −$122 (-34%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $200 $194 −$5 (-3%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 64¢ $42 $46 +$3 (+8%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 76¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $7 −$4 (-34%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 80¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,037 +$413 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $42 +$58 +138%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New Jun 25 $49 +$55 +113%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $255 +$45 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $360 −$360 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $1,651 +$1,449 +88%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $407 −$407 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $714 +$131 +18%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. N Jun 21 $45 +$51 +113%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $660 +$340 +52%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $780 −$780 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $4 +$16 +426%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $270 +$230 +85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,821 +$2,219 +122%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $506 +$294 +58%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $612 +$108 +18%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $248 −$248 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $108 −$107 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $555 +$125 +23%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $345 +$133 +38%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Jun 14 $8 +$10 +133%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $86 −$86 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne Jun 12 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $148 +$102 +70%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $110 −$110 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $99 +$61 +61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $424 −$421 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $110 +$102 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $70 +$100 +144%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $198 +$102 +52%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 09 $190 −$190 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $92 +$108 +117%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $108 −$108 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $62 −$62 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $332 −$329 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 05 $480 −$480 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 03 $142 −$142 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $119 −$119 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $336 −$336 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 02 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 02 $183 −$183 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $166 +$154 +92%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New May 30 $98 +$132 +136%
Will Alex Palou win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? May 29 $14 +$5 +37%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $9 +$21 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $235 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $184 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $4 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $19 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $19 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $566 1h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $169 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 42¢ $31 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 42¢ $11 28h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $1 2d
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $86 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $164 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $261 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $6 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $42 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $1 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $3 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $11 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $4 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $33 3d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New BUY No 47¢ $49 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $202 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $4 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $201 3d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $100 3d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $53 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $47 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $23 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,347.59 · official $5,347.59 (match) · 2477 history records