Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf83e…e1f8 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$147 (-7%) realized −$92 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$77
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$72
crypto 27% +$114
world 24% −$170
politics 19% −$218
finance 1% −$25
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -52.5% -57.0% 0% 0% -40.6%
≤30d 8 -11.1% -19.6% 12% 12% -40.5%
≤90d 37 -10.1% -18.7% 22% 19% -30.3%
all 37 -10.1% -18.7% 22% 19% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 19% -30.3%
10% -26.5% 19% -37.0%
15% -33.6% 19% -43.1%
20% -40.1% 19% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$24 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)37 / 48
History coverage73d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $53 $70 +$17 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $53 $59 +$6 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $70 $47 −$23 (-32%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $49 $37 −$12 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $32 −$2 (-7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $19 −$4 (-16%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $15 −$7 (-31%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $10 −$18 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $30 −$17 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$8 +323%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $51 −$3 -6%
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $99 −$49 -49%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 17 $46 −$14 -30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 16 $219 −$36 -16%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $125 −$61 -49%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $125 −$71 -57%
Trump out as President before 2027? Apr 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 08 $25 −$2 -10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 08 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $20 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in April? Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 08 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 08 $22 +$34 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 07 $35 −$34 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 07 $29 +$18 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 07 $35 −$33 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 07 $38 +$167 +435%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 07 $55 −$15 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 07 $20 +$73 +367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 07 $25 +$18 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 07 $21 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 07 $11 +$39 +355%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 07 $51 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $32 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $10 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 41h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 41h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $21 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $13 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $30 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.95 · official $310.95 · 172 history records