Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf840…a1f6 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$4
other 28% −$1
finance 4% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 12 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 0% -8.7%
all 27 -3.8% -13.0% 44% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -8.9%
10% -21.3% 0% -17.7%
15% -28.9% 0% -25.6%
20% -35.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage380d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $46 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $21 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $64 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $24 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $48 +$3 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Paul win Wimbledon 2025? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín win the 2025 Bolivia presidential el Jul 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 24 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jun 20 $2 $0 -12%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
North Korea missile test by June 15? Jun 18 $7 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 14 $7 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $18 $0 -2%
Starmer out before July? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $5 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 8 at 5 PM ET? Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $33 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $30 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $2 4h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $38 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $44 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $48 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $48 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $21 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $18 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $18 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $35 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $11 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $33 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $13 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $45 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $26 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $20 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 24¢ $2 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 21¢ $2 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 78¢ $22 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 78¢ $22 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $8 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $0 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records