Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf841…915b crypto 1162 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$36,986 (+240%) realized +$36,905 · open +$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate26%301W / 852L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$862
weather 2% −$89
sports 0% +$28
other 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-49.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 +7.9% -2.4% 68% 54% -9.2%
≤30d 183 +7.7% -2.6% 68% 54% -9.2%
≤90d 1153 -43.9% -49.2% 26% 20% -15.6%
all 1153 -43.9% -49.2% 26% 20% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.2% 20% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -54.1% 15% -23.7%
15% -58.5% 12% -31.1%
20% -62.6% 9% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized+$36,905
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses301 / 852
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1153 / 1162
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 9¢ 50¢ $20 $106 +$86 (+432%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 45¢ 50¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Down 54¢ 50¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 57¢ 50¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 55¢ 50¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 47¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 58¢ 50¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 61¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 459 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $39 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $47 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $55 −$30 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $124 −$40 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$25 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $69 −$30 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $67 −$40 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$13 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $73 −$24 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$15 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $55 +$53 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$32 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $43 +$43 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $44 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $83 −$15 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $72 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$25 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $56 −$34 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$50 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $12 +$13 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$51 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$14 +93%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$13 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$12 +440%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$24 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$11 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$8 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $14 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $19 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $18 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $13 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $14 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $17 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.85 · official $234.85 (match) · 3500 history records