Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf844…3fc7
other · 54 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$45 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage605d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 0 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $24 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $75 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $77 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $79 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $75 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $82 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $76 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $24 +$1 +5%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +62%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$5 +70%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $8 +$7 +93%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$2 +24%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $49 +$2 +3%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Apr 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Tennessee State Tigers vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 149.5 Mar 23 $22 +$22 +99%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $13,557 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $3 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $17 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $53 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 77% −$14
politics 16% −$11
other 4% +$4
sports 1% −$25
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 4h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 8d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $11 9d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $11 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 22d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 23d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $7 24d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 25d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $17 25d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $17 25d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 26d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 26d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $74 27d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $74 27d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $75 33d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $75 33d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -7.3% -16.1% 14% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 41 -3.6% -12.8% 22% 12% -10.6%
all 54 -2.9% -12.2% 20% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 9% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 9% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 7% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records