Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf844…6551 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$732 (+15%) realized +$745 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$544
sports 23% +$77
crypto 11% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.5% -6.4% 43% 43% +8.1%
≤30d 23 +3.5% -6.4% 43% 43% +8.1%
≤90d 23 +3.5% -6.4% 43% 43% +8.1%
all 23 +3.5% -6.4% 43% 43% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 43% +8.1%
10% -15.3% 43% -2.3%
15% -23.5% 43% -11.7%
20% -31.0% 35% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$101 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,126
Realized+$745
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $910 $904 −$6 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $229 $222 −$7 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $768 +$384 +50%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $257 −$251 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $697 +$317 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $299 −$292 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $270 +$640 +237%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $556 −$550 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$26 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $206 +$163 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $76 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $82 −$78 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$3 +212%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $179 +$404 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $235 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $917 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $257 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $768 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $13 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,014 42h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 44h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $297 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $697 47h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $909 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $270 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $556 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $206 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $66 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,126.19 · official $1,126.19 (match) · 43 history records