Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf844…50d3
other · 34 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$9
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 25
Open positions6
Markets (closed)28 / 34
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 6 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 15¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+163%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+74%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Yes 16¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1519%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +595%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -78%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -90%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes $1 8m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes $1 4h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes $1 4h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes $1 4h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 23h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $1 24h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 25h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals SELL Yes $1 25h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals BUY Yes $1 28h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $0 43h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? SELL Yes $0 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -9.7% -18.3% 11% 11% -41.1%
≤30d 28 -9.7% -18.3% 11% 11% -41.1%
≤90d 28 -9.7% -18.3% 11% 11% -41.1%
all 28 -9.7% -18.3% 11% 11% -41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 11% -41.1%
10% -26.1% 11% -46.7%
15% -33.3% 7% -51.9%
20% -39.8% 7% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.61 · official $8.62 (match) · 43 history records