Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf845…a493 crypto 614 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,746 (-15%) realized −$8,746 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate81%495W / 119L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$1,513
14 days−$1,505
30 days−$10,592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$509
other 34% −$8,509
sports 2% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -5.9% -14.9% 82% 23% -16.7%
≤30d 583 +0.1% -9.4% 81% 30% -29.2%
≤90d 614 +0.3% -9.3% 81% 31% -23.6%
all 614 +0.3% -9.3% 81% 31% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 31% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 13% -30.9%
15% -25.9% 6% -37.6%
20% -33.2% 4% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$113 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,746
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses495 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)614 / 614
History coverage39d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 614 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $44 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $48 −$16 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $46 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$13 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $48 −$22 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $151 −$148 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $176 +$3 +2%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $160 −$156 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $188 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $191 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $179 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $190 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $194 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $190 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $125 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $189 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $190 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $192 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $127 +$51 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $190 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $187 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $179 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $162 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $110 +$30 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $108 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $57 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $43 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $34 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1992 history records