Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F8 0xf845…3f43 crypto 1785 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,095 (-8%) realized −$790 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%944W / 838L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$169
14 days−$562
30 days−$631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$799
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 -1.8% -11.2% 68% 68% -25.9%
≤30d 852 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 58% -14.9%
≤90d 1782 -5.0% -14.1% 53% 47% -14.9%
all 1782 -5.0% -14.1% 53% 47% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 47% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 43% -23.1%
15% -29.8% 37% -30.5%
20% -36.7% 31% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$790
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses944 / 838
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1782 / 1785
History coverage54d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1782 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 9m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 9m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 13m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 24m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 28m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 3500 history records