Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf849…a4e1 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$304 (-17%) realized −$293 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$274
sports 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -22.9% -30.2% 50% 44% -25.5%
≤30d 18 -22.9% -30.2% 50% 44% -25.5%
≤90d 18 -22.9% -30.2% 50% 44% -25.5%
all 18 -22.9% -30.2% 50% 44% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 44% -25.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 33% -32.6%
15% -43.0% 28% -39.1%
20% -48.6% 11% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$67 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$293
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $19 +$19 (+0%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 11¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $169 +$82 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $332 −$213 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $281 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $204 +$124 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $128 +$61 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $33 −$27 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$9 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.27 · official $19.27 (match) · 63 history records