Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:57:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf84a…7fd6 crypto 431 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate81%348W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 363 -2.0% -11.3% 84% 83% -10.2%
≤30d 406 -4.6% -13.7% 82% 81% -12.5%
≤90d 430 -4.8% -13.9% 81% 79% -12.5%
all 430 -4.8% -13.9% 81% 79% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 79% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 12% -20.9%
15% -29.6% 2% -28.5%
20% -36.5% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses348 / 82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)430 / 431
History coverage32d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 0¢ 70¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.98 (match) · 845 history records