Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F8 0xf84a…2dc8 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+4%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$1
other 23% +$32
crypto 7% +$1
politics 5% −$5
economics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 17% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 17% -9.4%
all 37 +27.8% +15.6% 46% 11% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.6% 11% -6.0%
10% +4.5% 5% -15.0%
15% -5.6% 5% -23.2%
20% -14.8% 5% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.44 per $1 lost it wins $4.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage470d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +18%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $48 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $13 +$1 +11%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 -9%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 16 $3 $0 -3%
Ethereum above $2,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $6 +$31 +553%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 01 $1 $0 -10%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Apr 01 $8 −$5 -65%
Did Kamala buy ads on Majority Report? Mar 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Mar 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $26 +$1 +3%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $24 $0 +2%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $23 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Mar 18 $24 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $23 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 12 $24 $0 -1%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on March 10? Mar 10 $1 +$7 +620%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $48 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $50 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $43 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $7 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $24 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $15 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $46 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $22 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $22 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $14 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $7 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $7 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $9 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $51 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $51 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $51 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $44 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $45 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.59 · official $47.59 (match) · 130 history records