Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf84a…09bc
crypto · 49 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$61 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$61 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage42d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$11 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 03 $4 −$2 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 03 $2 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 03 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 03 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 03 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 03 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 02 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 02 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 02 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 02 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 01 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 01 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 01 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 01 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 01 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 01 $8 +$8 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 01 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 01 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 01 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 01 $8 +$12 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 01 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 01 $1 +$2 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 01 $4 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 01 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 01 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 01 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 01 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 01 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 01 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 01 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 01 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -42.7% -48.2% 20% 20% -45.7%
≤30d 10 -42.7% -48.2% 20% 20% -45.7%
≤90d 49 -30.6% -37.2% 35% 31% -35.8%
all 49 -30.6% -37.2% 35% 31% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 31% -35.8%
10% -43.2% 27% -41.9%
15% -48.7% 22% -47.6%
20% -53.7% 20% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records