Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf850…9df4
other · 32 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$10 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 0 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $66 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 20 $5 $0 -7%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 07 $11 −$2 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 05 $4 −$1 -38%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 31 $14 $0 -2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $29 $0 +1%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $3 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 7-14? Mar 10 $11 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 08 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% $0
other 21% $0
sports 9% $0
politics 7% −$7
finance 6% $0
crypto 5% −$3
weather 3% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $34 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $27 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 47h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $31 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $26 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $7 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $24 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $13 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $31 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 6d
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? BUY No 98¢ $1 374d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 388d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -7.9% -16.7% 31% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 0% -11.3%
10% -24.7% 0% -19.8%
15% -31.9% 0% -27.5%
20% -38.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records