Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F8 0xf851…ef53 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$64 (-41%) realized −$82 · open +$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%3W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day9.4pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-50.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-45.3%	-50.5%	27%	27%	-56.0%
≤30d	11	-45.3%	-50.5%	27%	27%	-56.0%
≤90d	11	-45.3%	-50.5%	27%	27%	-56.0%
all	11	-45.3%	-50.5%	27%	27%	-56.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-50.5%	27%	-56.0%
10%	-55.3%	27%	-60.2%
15%	-59.6%	27%	-64.0%
20%	-63.6%	27%	-67.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.32 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$48

Realized−$82

Unrealized+$18

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses3 / 8

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage2d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day9.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	92¢	$30	$48	+$18 (+59%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$10	+$12	+119%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$10	+$9	+86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Jun 20	$10	+$10	+97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$15	−$15	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	45¢	$10	15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	43¢	$10	15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$19	15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$20	15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	50¢	$10	17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$10	17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	37¢	$10	40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	49¢	$10	40h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	36¢	$10	40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	29¢	$10	40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	34¢	$10	40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5	BUY Over	49¢	$15	40h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.84 · official $48.36 (match) · 16 history records