Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

F8 0xf853…1b19 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$263 (+20%) realized +$272 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown50%max

Avg bet$66per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$193

7 days+$177

14 days+$247

30 days+$247

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+0.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+26.2%	+14.2%	50%	50%	+9.0%
≤30d	16	+11.2%	+0.6%	44%	44%	+11.5%
≤90d	16	+11.2%	+0.6%	44%	44%	+11.5%
all	16	+11.2%	+0.6%	44%	44%	+11.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.6%	44%	+11.5%
10%	-9.0%	44%	+0.8%
15%	-17.8%	44%	-8.9%
20%	-25.9%	38%	-17.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +27% → late -5% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$108 vs −$56 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.49 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage

Net worth$241

Realized+$272

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions4

Markets (closed)16 / 20

History coverage15d

Avg bet$66

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown50%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	18¢	16¢	$50	$43	−$7 (-14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$51	−$51	-100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 19	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$51	+$63	+124%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$51	−$51	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$48	+48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$51	+$149	+291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$101	+$94	+93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$51	+$134	+262%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$102	+$98	+97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Jun 12	$23	−$23	-100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Jun 12	$23	−$23	-100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$102	+$168	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$51	1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	27h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$51	27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$51	2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$51	3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$200	3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	44¢	$51	3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	22¢	$102	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$196	4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$51	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$270	7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	50¢	$102	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$102	9d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	BUY LGD Gaming	35¢	$23	15d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	BUY Team Liquid	24¢	$23	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.03 · official $241.03 (match) · 37 history records